Stock up
1. N.C. State. The Wolfpack seem to be one of the very few bubble teams playing with confidence, and Friday night?s victory against Virginia might be enough to get them into the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2006, which is an eternity for that fan base. A win Saturday against North Carolina would seal their at-large berth, but the win against Virginia might be enough regardless of how the game with the Tar Heels finishes.
2. Marshall. The Thundering Herd wasn?t really even on the bubble radar a couple weeks ago, but they?ve won four in a row, including two against fellow bubble team Southern Miss. From a low RPI rank of 74, Marshall sits at 42 heading into the Conference USA championship game against Memphis.
3. Ole Miss. Don?t put the Rebels into the tournament just yet, though beating Tennessee was a must-have step toward an at-large berth. They?re still just 1-6 against RPI top 50 teams, 6-11 against top 100. They were crushed at home by Saturday?s semifinal opponent in their first meeting; Vanderbilt won by 26.
Stock down
1. Miami. Friday was a double-whammy day for the Hurricanes, who found out that guard Durand Scott was ineligible for potential NCAA violations and then lost to rival Florida State in the ACC Tournament. They still have that ace-in-the-hole win at Duke, but that probably won?t be enough to offset the fact that they have just two other wins against top 100 teams.
2. St. Joseph?s. The loss to St. Bonaventure in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals likely seals the Hawks? trip to the NIT. With an RPI of 70, 13 losses and just two top 50 wins, they won?t likely get the nod by the selection committee. The Hawks probably needed a conference tournament win against another quality team?Saint Louis, Temple, Xavier or Dayton?and that didn?t happen.
3. Virginia. The Cavs have long been considered pretty safe?beating Michigan back in November helped with that?but their resume gets pretty thin after the win against the Wolverines. Their RPI in the 50s and 2-6 record against top 50 teams?one of those wins was against the N.C. State team that beat them Friday?puts them in a big group of teams that might not sleep too soundly on Saturday night.
Note: As always, this is a projection of what the selection committee would do based on what?s happened so far this season. Note, part 2: Pending automatic bids are given to the highest remaining seed in conference tournaments. Note, part 3: Teams with asterisks have officially locked up NCAA bids.
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1. Kentucky (SEC)
2. Syracuse
3. North Carolina (ACC)
4. Kansas
5. Missouri (Big 12)
6. Ohio State
7. Duke
8. Michigan State (Big Ten)
9. Baylor
10. Michigan
11. Marquette
12. Indiana
13. Georgetown
14. Wisconsin
15. Wichita State
16. Louisville
17. * Creighton (Missouri Valley)
18. Vanderbilt
19. Florida State
20. Temple
21. * Murray State (Ohio Valley)
22. UNLV
23. Florida
24. New Mexico
25. Cincinnati (Big East)
26. Gonzaga
27. Notre Dame
28. Memphis (C-USA)
29. San Diego State (Mountain West)
30. * St. Mary?s (West Coast)
31. Iowa State
32. Kansas State
33. Saint Louis (Atlantic 10)
34. Purdue
35. Connecticut
36. Alabama
37. Virginia
38. West Virginia
39. * VCU (Colonial)
40. California (Pac-12)
41. Colorado State
42. * Harvard (Ivy)
43. Xavier
44. BYU
45. Texas
46. N.C. State
47. Seton Hall
48. Miami
49. Southern Miss
50. Drexel
51. Iona
52. Long Beach (Big West)
53. Nevada (WAC)
54. Akron (MAC)
55. * Davidson (Southern)
56. * Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
57. * South Dakota State (Summit)
58. * Asheville (Big South)
59. * Montana (Big Sky)
60. * Detroit (Horizon)
61. * Long Island (Northeast)
62. * Loyola-Maryland (Metro Atlantic)
63. * Lehigh (Patriot)
64. Stony Brook (America East)
65. Norfolk State (Mid-Eastern)
66. * Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
67. Lamar (Southland)
68. Mississippi Valley State (Southwestern)
Newcomers today: Iona, Lamar
Dropped out: Dayton, Stephen F. Austin
Bubble boys (in alphabetical order): Arizona, Dayton, Middle Tennessee, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Oral Roberts, Oregon, South Florida, St. Joseph?s, Tennessee, Washington
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